The Geopolitical Conflict Shakes the Fishing Industry

The consequences of the conflict in the Middle East, which began last February, have reached various sectors of the productive economy, including the fishing industry. The sector has been navigating turbulent waters for months, and in Spain, the war is impacting the agri-food industry, where concerns are growing over rising transportation, logistics and packaging costs.

When people think of the Middle East, their attention usually turns to oil. However, the effects of geopolitical instability extend far beyond the energy sector and ultimately impact everyday yet essential activities such as grocery shopping or buying fish from a local fishmonger. This highlights the reality of a global supply chain that depends on the same maritime routes used to transport frozen fish imported by Europe from Asia.

The European Union consumes far more fish than it produces. According to a report by the European Parliament’s Committee on Fisheries (PECH), the EU imports approximately 83% of its seafood products, mainly from Asian countries such as China, India and Vietnam. This reflects a structural dependency resulting from the EU’s limited capacity for self-sufficiency in meeting steadily growing demand.

Iran’s control of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz has triggered a domino effect. As tensions in the region have intensified, and particularly following the closure of this maritime route, transit times, fuel costs and marine insurance premiums have increased significantly. As a result, many shipping companies have been forced to reroute their vessels, disrupting container transportation.

According to data provided by Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture, the price of fishing diesel has risen by more than 62% since the start of the war. This increase has driven operating costs sharply higher, despite the government’s fuel subsidy of 20 euro cents per litre, a measure considered insufficient in the face of price increases of between 60 and 70 cents per litre.

With the start of the summer season, fishing campaigns in Southeast Asia are practically over at origin, and current transit times—now reaching between 60 and 70 days—mean that any product loaded this month will not arrive in time for the summer season. In addition, some fishing fleets have reduced or even suspended operations because going out to sea is no longer economically viable unless a minimum catch volume can be guaranteed.

For products originating in India, transit times have increased from 25–30 days to 40–50 days as a direct consequence of route changes, representing an increase of nearly 50%. For products originating in China, transit times are approaching 70 days.

The surge in fuel prices has major implications for the frozen fish and seafood sector. Species with relatively low profit margins, such as shrimp, squid and tilapia, are extremely sensitive to any increase in operating and logistics costs. Consequently, rising ocean freight rates can completely alter profitability.

In this context, importing companies are trying to absorb part of these cost increases and are reluctant to pass the additional expenses on to customers. However, consumers ultimately end up bearing the burden of these widespread price increases, which are already emerging as a genuine threat.

At the same time, rising oil prices are also affecting food packaging, as petroleum is one of the key raw materials used in the manufacture of most packaging materials.

Rising costs, disrupted trade routes and uncertainty regarding the duration of the conflict have created a situation of significant concern for the sector. This dynamic demonstrates how, in a globalized economy, even a frozen fish fillet can become a matter of geopolitics.